Today we had the much anticipated jobs report and as expected, this economy is shedding jobs faster than my lab is shedding her hair. The unemployment rate is now 7.2%, the highest rate since January of 1993. We lost 524,000 jobs in December. Add to this that the average manufacturing work week is down to 33 hrs per week and you have a recipe brewing for a disaster.
There is also an interesting statistic called the "U-6" which includes those who are working part time but would prefer full time work if they could find it and those who are available for work but are not looking at this time. That number is now 13.5% which is the highest we have seen since record keeping started for this number in 1994.
So, even those who kept their head in the sand as long as they could are now popping out and agreeing we are in a deep recession (I think McCain was saying in September that that economy was "fundamentally strong"). We also must state that the Bush administration and the Republicans were handed a very strong economy that was running a surplus. A mere eight years later they hand us back a Country that is in deep recession (not a cyclical one but rather the worst since the great depression), a $1 Trillion dollar deficit, a two front war and a financial system in ruin due to lack of regulation. Thanks George. Great work.
So, what to do? I am sure the Obama stimulus package will be debated over and over and everyone will nitpick it for their personal gain (we should invest in "this" v. "that" where "this" benefits the person supporting it) but a few things are clear:
- The need for a large stimulus package is a foregone conclusion. Consumers must regain faith that their job will be around next year to get them to start investing and spending.
- The need to stop the housing slide is a must. I have changed a bit on this. I was in the camp, initially, of saying "tough luck" for those who got themselves into too much debt. However, I now believe the carnage being put on the entire economy by abandoned and foreclosed houses cannot be sustained. There needs to be help.
- The recession will be here for all of 2009. It could go into 2010.
- We have to end the wars. Bottom line is we cannot afford them. I suppose you could say the wars are a government works program but the problem is it is a "consumable". Meaning, the outcome adds no long term value to the economy. Bridges, roads, schools etc. add long term value. Rather than building these in Baghdad, we should build them in Detroit.
While we can argue "around the edges" of this, I cannot imagine anyone still believes this is just a "blip" anymore.
Links:
Vanguard economic week in review
Northern trust economic daily review.
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